Prosperity Monitoring Issued By China Textile Federation Circulation Branch

　　 The prosperity monitoring results of China Textile Federation Circulation Branch show that in December 2024, the prosperity index of managers of the national textile and clothing professional market will be 49.30, down 1.88 percentage points from the previous month; The business climate index of professional market was 50.47, down 0.85 percentage points from the previous month.

　　 1、 Managers' prosperity and merchants' prosperity index declined

Data shows that in December, the boom index of managers and merchants in the national textile and clothing professional market both declined, with the boom index of managers below 50 and the boom index of merchants above 50.

　　 1. Managers' prosperity index dropped by 1.88%

From the perspective of managers' prosperity index, in the total index, managers' prosperity index in December was 49.30, down 1.88 percentage points from the previous month; The business environment index was 50.65, down 2.25 percentage points from the previous month.

Among the sub indexes, the total business volume index was 49.35, down 1.62 percentage points from the previous month; The logistics delivery index was 49.35, down 1.62 percentage points from the previous month; The passenger flow index was 49.35, down 1.62 percentage points from the previous month; The door opening rate index was 49.03, down 1.94 percentage points from the previous month; The rental index was 48.71, down 1.29 percentage points from the previous month; The e-commerce sales index was 50.00, down 3.23 percentage points from the previous month.

　　 2. Business climate index dropped by 0.85%

From the perspective of business climate index, in the total index, the business climate index in December was 50.47, down 0.85 percentage points from the previous month; The business environment index was 51.13, down 0.38 percentage points from the previous month.

Among the sub indexes, the sales volume index was 49.93, down 2.88 percentage points from the previous month; The average price index was 49.93, down 1.58 percentage points from the previous month; The profitability index was 49.73, down 3.08 percentage points from the previous month; The comprehensive cost index was 50.67, up 2.18 percentage points from the previous month; The inventory index was 51.07, up 1.14 percentage points from the previous month; The e-commerce sales index was 51.47, down 0.93 percentage points from the previous month.

　　 2、 Data analysis

　　 1. Decline in market operating performance

In December, 19.35% of the total market operations and market logistics shipments decreased, up 9.67 percentage points from the previous month. In December, the winter clothing sales in the professional market came to an end, and the market sales entered a slow period, with all indicators showing a downward trend.

Figure 1 Total business volume index

Figure 2 Logistics Delivery Index

　　 2. Market operation pressure has increased

In December, 12.90% of the professional market's opening rate declined, up 12.90 percentage points from the previous month, and 16.13% of the professional market's rent showed a downward trend, up 16.13 percentage points from the previous month; 19.35% of professional market passenger flow decreased, 9.67 percentage points higher than that of last month. In December, the market opening rate, rent and passenger flow all decreased compared with the previous month, and the index dropped below 50, which increased the pressure on the operation of the professional market.

Figure 3 Door opening rate index

Figure 4 Passenger Flow Index

Figure 5 Rent Index

　　 3. Business performance of merchants declined

In December, 7.33% of the total sales of merchants in the market increased, down 30.34 percentage points from the previous month; The profit of 6.00% of the market merchants increased, down 30.99 percentage points from the previous month; 7.33% of the market merchants' sales prices increased, 17.33 percentage points lower than the previous month. After the "Double 11" promotion, winter clothing sales have come to an end, and the total sales volume, profit, price and other indicators of the professional market have shown a downward trend.

Figure 6 Sales Index

Figure 7 Profitability Index

Figure 8 Average selling price index

　　 4. Merchant cost and inventory pressure eased

In December, 9.33% of the market merchants' comprehensive costs decreased, up 4.54 percentage points from the previous month; 13.33% of professional market merchants' inventory decreased, 5.80 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. After the consumption promotion season in November and December, the merchant cost and inventory pressure in the professional market have been effectively relieved, and both indexes have rebounded to more than 50.

Figure 9 Comprehensive Cost Index

Figure 10 Inventory Index

　　 5. Overall e-commerce sales fluctuated slightly

In December, 6.45% of professional market e-commerce sales increased, 25.81 percentage points lower than the previous month; 15.33% of merchants' e-commerce sales increased, 12.75 percentage points lower than that of the previous month; After the "Double 11", e-commerce sales in December tended to be flat, and both indexes declined slightly.

Figure 11 Manager E-commerce Sales Index

Figure 12 E-commerce sales index of merchants

　　 3、 Prediction index

The data shows that, for managers, the manager prosperity index in the next period is 50.32, down 1.62 percentage points from the previous month; The business environment index for the next period was 50.00, down 2.26 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of merchants, the business climate index of the next period will be 51.27, down 0.10 percentage points from the previous month; The business environment index for the next period was 50.93, down 0.44 percentage points from the previous month. The four prediction indexes are all higher than 50, indicating that professional market managers and merchants are more confident about the operation in January 2025.

　　 Attachment:

　　 1. Monitoring methods

"Prosperity index of textile and clothing professional market" consists of "manager index" and "merchant index". Using the sampling method, select markets and merchants of different business categories such as clothing, fabrics, home textiles and small commodities nationwide, and fill in the managers' prosperity index questionnaire and merchants' prosperity index questionnaire respectively.

　　 2. Monitoring samples

The managers' prosperity sample consists of 31 professional textile and clothing markets, including Guangzhou Baima Clothing Market, Shandong Jimo Clothing Market, Jiangsu Dieshiqiao Home Textile Market, Shanghai Xinqipu Clothing Market, and Liaoning Xiliu Clothing Market. The business prosperity sample consists of 147 businesses such as Taotao Clothing, Suntory Textile, Weibang Home Textile, and Vitoli Cashmere.

　　 3. Monitoring period

The boom monitoring cycle shall be monthly, submitted at the end of each month, and released at the beginning of the next month.

　　 4. Index composition

In the "Prosperity Index of Textile and Garment Professional Market", the "manager index" consists of four first level indexes, namely, the current manager prosperity index, the next manager prosperity index, the current business environment index, and the next business environment index; The "current manager prosperity index" consists of six secondary indexes, namely, total business volume index, logistics delivery volume index, passenger flow index, door opening rate index, rent index and e-commerce sales index.

The "merchant index" consists of four primary indexes, namely, the merchant prosperity index of the current period, the merchant prosperity index of the next period, the business environment index of the current period, and the business environment index of the next period; The "merchant boom index of the current period" consists of six secondary indexes, namely sales index, average selling price index, profitability index, comprehensive cost index, inventory index and e-commerce sales index.

　　 5. Exponential analysis

The positive index includes managers' total business volume index, logistics delivery volume index, passenger flow index, merchant opening rate index, rent index, e-commerce sales proportion index and merchant sales index, average selling price index, profitability index, e-commerce sales proportion index. If the positive index exceeds 50, it indicates that the business situation is optimistic, and the greater the value, the more optimistic it will be; The positive index is lower than 50, indicating that the business situation is not optimistic; The smaller the number, the more pessimistic.

The reverse index includes merchant cost index and inventory index. When the cost index exceeds 50, it indicates that the merchant's cost pressure decreases. The larger the value, the smaller the cost pressure; The cost index is lower than 50, indicating that the merchant's cost pressure increases. The smaller the value, the greater the cost pressure. When the inventory index exceeds 50, it indicates that the merchant's inventory pressure decreases. The larger the value, the smaller the inventory pressure; The inventory index is lower than 50, indicating that the merchant's inventory pressure increases. The smaller the value, the greater the inventory pressure.

(Source: China Textile Federation Circulation Branch)