Ministry Of Commerce Game Adjustment Of Export Tax Rebates

Recently, rumors about the textile industry's export tax rebate will soon be raised by the big media.

Rumors even refined to "textile export tax rebate rate may increase 2%, increased to 13%; garment export tax rebate rate increased by 4%, increased to 15%, textile raw materials viscose fiber from the current 5% to 15%, the final results will be seen in late July or early August."

But to date, the rumor has not been confirmed.

The investor newspaper asked the ministries of the NDRC, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Commerce and other major ministries, but they did not get a clear answer.

In July 22nd, the Ministry of Commerce disclosed to the investor newspaper: "it is not yet clear whether the export tax rebate rate has been raised.

But for all export tax rebate policies, it is impossible to return to the previous tax rate.

Because the future direction of China's economic development is to adjust its structure.

The upgrading of the textile industry can not always be in the position of this processing trade.

So even if there is a new export tax rebate policy, it is only a fine adjustment of policy.

It is impossible to make a big change. "

The official pointed out that the policy direction of the Ministry of commerce is to make a more detailed division of the tax numbers for export tax rebates, and the export tax rebate rate will be fine-tuning in more refined commodities, but not the whole industry will be adjusted in a large scale.

Policy trend is gradually clear.

At the end of last year, the Ministry of Commerce went to Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces and began an investigation of the small and medium-sized textile industry.

In April this year, a large scale investigation was carried out with ministries and commissions such as the NDRC and the Ministry of finance.

The most common reactions were: RMB appreciation, adjustment of export tax rebate rate, adjustment of processing trade policy, implementation of new labor law, land cost increase and so on. A series of policies which had negative effects on the textile industry were introduced last year. The demand for subprime mortgage crisis weakened abroad. All these factors combined to make small and medium-sized textile enterprises complain incessantly.

With the increase in oil and electricity prices and the increase in the cost of production materials at the source of enterprises, the reaction of enterprises is even greater.

The Ministry of Commerce's industry survey has certain criteria: first, overall, whether there has been a significant decline in employment and capacity in the textile industry; secondly, it is necessary to classify the enterprises that have problems, and whether all enterprises have problems.

Is there any differentiation between enterprises with their own intellectual property rights and export brands, high technology content and those completely low-end processing enterprises?

If the latter enterprise dies in large area, and the former enterprise is not suffered loss or loss, it is normal and reasonable, and there is no need to worry.

According to the above sources, in the survey, most enterprises also realized that there is no way out.

What most companies want is not to introduce all the policies that are unfavorable to the textile and garment industry in the near future.

Because too intensive policies are introduced, coupled with the deterioration of the international environment, the pressure on enterprises is too great.

More requirements are: first, the policy should not be too dense; second, do not collide with domestic policies and unfavorable international environment, so as to avoid the potential of internal and external attacks. Third, when enterprises realize that economic restructuring is the trend of the times, a policy needs to be stabilized for some time to ensure that enterprises have a buffer period.

Therefore, in recent years, the state has fine adjustments in various policies, such as interest rate and reserve ratio have not been raised again, and the appreciation of RMB has begun to slow down, which is due to the relaxation of enterprises.

In the next few days, it is unlikely that the policy of making enterprises more nervous will be introduced again.

Shift the focus of work to ensure the smooth digestion of enterprises pressure.

The source pointed out that the Ministry of Commerce has not yet proposed to raise the export tax rebate rate.

The main reason is that the situation is not very clear: first, the external environment -- whether the impact of the US subprime crisis has ended, the extent of the global economic slowdown, and how big the economic crisis in neighboring countries such as Vietnam is unclear; secondly, whether global inflation will continue; and third, whether the enterprises can gradually digest these pressures when the policy is no longer tight.

If these factors can be stabilized, then the possibility of raising the export tax rebate rate will be zero.

The adjustment of export tax rebate rate has little effect.

Since 2008, the profitability of the industry has been sharply reduced due to factors such as RMB appreciation, labor costs rising, export tax rebate reduction and external demand reduction.

According to the statistics of China Textile Industry Association, under the combined influence of various factors, the actual profit margin of 2/3 of the whole industry is only 0.62%.

Since July this year, the central leadership has conducted intensive research on housing prices.

In early July, Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council went to Jiangsu and Shanghai. Xi Jinping, vice president of the state, went to Guangdong. Vice Premier Wang Qishan of the State Council went to Shandong.

During his research, Wen Jiabao pointed out: first, we should pform the mode of economic development, speed up structural adjustment, grasp the key points, rhythm and intensity of macroeconomic regulation and control, maintain steady and rapid development of the economy for a long time, avoid major ups and downs, and also emphasize inflation.

Subsequently, the media raised the "textile industry is about to raise the export tax rebate rate" boom, the industry is in an uproar.

However, investors reported that many enterprises still hold a wait-and-see attitude towards the export tax rebate policy.

The town of Xu Cun, known as the town of "Buyi town" in Haining, Zhejiang Province, is a small and medium-sized textile enterprise concentrated area. Mayor Yuan Jie told reporters in an interview with investor newspaper: "the increase of only 2 percentage points has little impact on enterprises.

Because only the export tax rebate rate is raised, the contribution to profits may be only a few percentage points. The bankrupt enterprises will still go bankrupt, and they can live or live. "

Shi Chengkuang, general manager of Hangzhou Xiaoshan Phoenix Textile Co., Ltd. also told the investor newspaper: "for enterprises, increasing the tax rebate is always good.

But in the face of the appreciation of the renminbi and the rising cost of finance, the increase of only 2 percentage points is too little.

He said that since the beginning of this year, the financial cost has increased by 10% to more than 15%.

The increase in raw material prices has increased the cost of raw materials by 10% to 20%.

With the implementation of the new labor law, labor costs have risen by about 30%, so the total cost has increased by 15% to 20%.

These gains alone are obviously not enough only on the 2% rise in export tax rebates.

If the profit of the former enterprise is 30%, it is only about 10% now.

"If profits are below 10%, there is nothing to do."

Shi Chengkuang reluctantly said, "the current approach is that we hope that in the second half of the year, customers will be able to shoulder about 15%, but this needs a process.

If we can't raise the price, then we can do nothing but do nothing but do it or not.

Now the way is small batch, multi batch production to reduce risk.

Roughly calculate, even according to the most conservative algorithm, the textile and clothing only increase two percentage points, up to 13%, only 5 months after 2007, the national tax refund to the enterprise is 8 billion yuan, and the total amount of tax to be returned in 2009 is 19 billion yuan.

Moreover, some of these taxes can not be fully counted on the business.

Because for many small and medium enterprises without bargaining power, once the export tax rebate rate is raised, buyers will ask to reduce unit price.

In this way, the state's tax refund to enterprises is equivalent to subsidizing foreigners in disguised form.

Liu Weijun, an analyst of textile and garment industry of GF Securities, concluded: "the export tax rebate increase can only play a short-term role for enterprises at best, and RMB appreciation and cost rise is the most fundamental burden on enterprises."

The first requirement is to stabilize the exchange rate.

Many industry insiders say that the main reason for the plight of the textile and garment industry is that the appreciation of the renminbi is too fast.

Therefore, even if the export tax rebate rate is raised by 2 to 4 percentage points, it will not make up for the losses of textile enterprises.

Since the reform in 2005, the total appreciation of RMB has reached 16%, and this year it has appreciated by 7%.

Only one appreciation makes many enterprises lose money.

"Now the exchange rate is the biggest negative impact on the textile industry, and export tax rebate is a small thing," Marie told analysts.

The appreciation of RMB is too large. If the price increase of enterprises can not keep up with the appreciation rate of the renminbi, it is equivalent to a reduction in the prices of enterprises.

This year's situation is worse than before.

Last year, China's peripheral countries, such as India and Vietnam, appreciated currencies against the US dollar.

This year, the value of the renminbi has depreciated.

The pressure on enterprises is even greater.

Yuan Jie, mayor of Xu village, wrote accounts for us: the exchange rate between RMB and the US dollar at 8 points, plus export tax rebates, has more than 9 yuan, and even now, with export tax rebates, it is only about 7 yuan, and the difference is 2.5 yuan or more.

This has great impact on enterprises.

Since this year, the production of home textile enterprises in Xu Cun has shrunk.

Now it has reached the level of no growth.

And the expectation of RMB appreciation makes the enterprises wait and see more, and the order is afraid to answer.

Even if the exchange rate is stable now, or the export tax rebate policy is introduced, there is a process that can not happen immediately.

Only when the currency stability is confirmed will enterprises increase production. "

Another hidden danger caused by the rapid appreciation of the RMB is that the enterprise is afraid to pick up the list, because it may not only make money, but also can lose money.

Guo Yi, deputy general manager of Zhejiang Hengyi Formosa Petrochemical Co, told the reporter of the investor: "the export orders of domestic and foreign trade enterprises are not connected, the most important factor is the appreciation of the RMB."

If the order is received, production will take one cycle, usually in about 3 months.

3 months later, after the production is finished, the appreciation of the renminbi will erase all profits.

In addition to stabilizing exchange rates, providing credit support is also a powerful measure to help SMEs out of their predicament.

Premier Wen Jiabao said in his research in Guangzhou last week, "Guangdong's small and medium-sized enterprises are relatively well-developed in non-public ownership.

At present, small and medium-sized enterprises are facing more difficulties.

We should increase support from credit, finance and taxation, and industrial policies.

In particular, support and nurture a number of SMEs with potential growth potential. "

Zhang Yansheng, director of the Foreign Economic Research Institute of the development and Reform Commission, also accepted the measure when interviewed by an investor newspaper.

He said: "if the credit is not relaxed, these small and medium enterprises may go to private financing, otherwise they will borrow money from each other. The cost will be very high.

This is a very harmful business environment for enterprises.

Therefore, credit for SMEs should also be actively supported. "

The only way to integrate industry

According to the Ministry of Commerce's participation in the investigation, many textile enterprises have realized that this dilemma is the inevitable labor pains in the process of industrial upgrading and economic structural pformation.

What enterprises need to do is to make efforts to optimize the industrial structure of the enterprises to adapt to this change.

Zhang Bin, a senior analyst in the textile industry of State Securities (41.05, -1.14, -2.70%, bar) also holds the same view. He said: "it is too early to raise the export tax rebate.

It is now possible to take advantage of this opportunity to integrate the textile industry to remove excess capacity. "

He believed that the state should protect the good enterprises by means of macro regulation and control so that the bad enterprises could be eliminated in the survival of the fittest.

Now the profit rate of the industry has dropped, but the listed companies and large enterprises are still making profits. All the small businesses that are losing their profits are poor.

Historically, the textile and garment industry has been shifting to cheaper labour costs.

It has been pferred from the coast to the mainland, but now it is likely to be pferred from home to abroad.

In the meantime, good enterprises have been pformed and poor enterprises have died.

Liu Weijun, an analyst in the textile industry of GF Securities, told the investor newspaper: "no matter whether the export tax rebate policy or the stable exchange rate policy is implemented, if the textile industry has been fighting a price war, it will not be possible to produce only low tech products.

Textile enterprises like Japan, Italy and other countries are also facing the same problem. They can pform their products by increasing the added value of their products.

But Liu Weijun also expressed concern that the industry chain of China's textile industry is the most complete in the world.