Why Does The A Stocks Do Not Rise In Quality Stocks?

The Shanghai Composite Index fell another 187.65 points (about 6.4%) at the close of 2741.25 after a sharp fall in China's stock market in the early years.

From January 4th to January 15th, the stock market fell 18%, triggering a sharp sell-off in the global stock market, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 8.2%, showing China's influence on the world economy.

In response to this, an article in the Wall Street journal pointed out that one of the reasons for the unrest of China's stock market is the huge overcapacity of factories from the Luxury Apartments to stimulate the economy.

However, the analysis of the Chinese media is different. It is said that the fusing mechanism is not appropriate. Some analyses are due to the depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar, and some people think it is caused by the slowdown in China's economy.

In fact, these are indeed reasons.

Since 2015, especially when A shares are booming, bad news has never broken.

First of all, the real economy, especially manufacturing, is facing downward pressure.

In April, HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 48.9, lower than the negative alert line 50..

In May, although PMI rose to 49.1, it was inferior to 49.3 of the market expected. The root is that domestic and international demand is weak, and output and output prices continue to decline. Enterprises can only reduce production to cope with the decline in demand, indicating that the manufacturing boom is deteriorating and deflation pressure is relatively strong.

Moreover, poor local debt is also a crucial factor in the stock market crash.

In May 18, 2015, Jiangsu issued the first 52 billion 200 million yuan of local bonds, including 30 billion 800 million yuan for general bonds, and 21 billion 400 million yuan for general bonds.

At that time, the PMI in June slowed down to 51.8, slowing to its lowest level in 5 months, and the output index of the integrated manufacturing and service industries dropped to a low of 50.6 in 13 months, and the new business index of the service industry also dropped to 52.2, indicating a downturn in demand and a slowdown in the economy.

It is worth mentioning that in June 13, 2015, China

Reiterated the ban on OTC capital allocation, but margin trading continued to climb to a historical high of 2 trillion and 260 billion yuan.

The most important thing is that the valuation of A shares is still "high above the horizon", which is called "the most expensive stock market in the world". The median price earnings ratio of A shares is still 65 times, 19 times higher than that of the United States, three times higher than that of the United States, and the valuation of gem is 91 times higher than that of the Nasdaq, which is 4 times that of NASDAQ, indicating that there is a big bubble in the stock market.

From the technical level, A shares are very similar to NASDAQ: hype theme, dividends rarely dividends, plus the introduction of index, short selling mechanism, which greatly increases the risk of stock market.

Since 2007, the A shares, like NASDAQ in 1998 and 1999, have come out of a very similar figure with Nasdaq, causing the stock market crash to be no surprise.

However, why does the A stocks do not rise in quality stocks?

This is precisely a big problem in China's stock market: speculators are far more than real investors, and most of the stocks are too large for speculators to "stir".

Therefore, in the Chinese stock market, only when real investors exceed speculators can the stock market really become healthy.

Why do you say that?

because

There is a difference between speculation and speculation.

Investment means you buy.

It is hoped that dividends will be paid regularly, and that the stock price will not rise or fall in the short term. The proceeds will come from the wealth created by investment.

Speculation is that when you buy a stock, you want to buy it by selling it (or short), and its profit comes from the loss of another speculator.

Therefore, if the investors in the market are mostly investors, the listed companies can share dividends according to the ratio of P/E (price to earnings ratio), which can bring real returns to the majority of investors. It will also attract pensions and pension funds to enter the market, so that the stock market will enter a virtuous circle, and reduce the stock price bubbles so as to ensure the effectiveness and stability of the market.

At present, the public's problem of China's stock market is concentrated on the SFC or even the chairman of the securities and Futures Commission. In fact, the problem of the sharp rise and fall of the stock market is not in the SFC.

For ordinary retail investors, the real problem of China's stock market lies in its original design - a relief for corporate finance.

If the original intention is not changed, even replacing the 100 SFC chairmen is useless.

History has proved that stock price fluctuation is an important part of dynamic economic activities, and it is also an index affecting social mood. Stock market is often regarded as the main index of a country's economic strength and development.

For example, the rising trend of the stock market will be regarded as a symbol of economic prosperity, that is, the so-called barometer of economy. It is necessary to cultivate a healthy and healthy stock market: investors must take up the majority.