Capital Investment Logic: Strong Stimulus For The Economy In The Future

Authority again.

In May 9th, an authoritative person interviewed by this newspaper said that the judgement of China's economic operation is the trend of L, which is an economic stage and can not be passed quickly.

But at the same time, because China's economic elasticity is strong, even if it does not stimulate, the speed will not fall anywhere.

This should mean that there is no need to stimulate the economy in the future, and there is no need for flood irrigation.

From an authoritative point of view, investors should be able to draw guidelines for future investment.

Last year, the capital market has experienced the high leverage of the stock market. This year, it has gone through a surge of futures. The real estate market is divided into different cities. The sequelae caused by high leverage have been fully paid attention to by the senior authorities, which means that it is unrealistic to hope that a high lever will drive the mad rise of a certain market.

In the downside of the economy, liquidity and investment can still be carried forward, and capital will become a shot in the arm from time to time.

But after the liquidity injection, the real economy is often unable to absorb all of the investment efficiency because of low efficiency, and a large part will spill over into the capital and money market, resulting in the rapid growth of a certain market in the short term.

But such growth is just the occasional fireworks in the sky. The duration will not be long. Once the economy is stable, the money will shrink, and the market will be loose, tight, loose and tight.

Therefore, investors can not unrealistically imagine that a certain market can remain liquid for a long time.

In such a market, investors need to seize the plates that can lead the future, such as high-end manufacturing, consumption and high-end services.

stay

In the L type operation cycle, there will be differentiation. Whether in the region, in the industry or in the enterprise, there will always be some "eight" benefits in the differentiation of the "28 laws", which will stand out and have bright prospects.

The authorities are very clear that it is a fantasy to speed up economic growth and expand the denominator and reduce leverage through loose monetary regulation.

This reminds investors not to invest with high leverage.

The invisible hand of policy will not deliberately reverse the trend of differentiation. Differentiation means that resources have been efficiently allocated and injected into the future profitable industry. Therefore, high-end manufacturing and high-end service industries are the future prospects of China's economy. After that, investment should firmly grasp these two points.

At the same time, in the process of urbanization, the urban agglomerations in the developed areas of the market economy are relatively safer. These cities are developing faster and more market-oriented, and will attract more people to come.

Enterprise deleveraging can be carried out in the form of market merger or bankruptcy liquidation. For those who can not be rescued, the closure must be firmly closed. The bankrupt must go bankrupt in accordance with the law. Do not engage in "debt to equity swap" at all times, and do not engage in restructuring. It is too costly and self deceiving. Sooner or later, it is a big burden.

As long as employment is stable, the bankruptcy of industries with excess capacity is not a big problem.

The improper use of high leverage will make people lose their homes and the government will not encourage them.

It is bound to bring high risks and bad control will lead to systemic financial crisis, resulting in negative economic growth and even the savings of ordinary people.

High leverage is not a good idea for personal investment, unless you consider yourself Buffett, but Buffett has plenty of cash flow and almost no leverage.

The stock market, the exchange market and the property market return to their respective functional orientation, respecting their respective development rules, and not simply as a means to ensure growth.

What is the origin of the stock market? It is to improve the efficiency of resource allocation, not to solve the debt crisis of the real economy, not to make big companies get a lot of money, so that a lot of people can cash in and get richer.

The source of the property market is to let people live, let people rest, not to let people invest.

The source of the exchange market is to make people invest and live more conveniently inside and outside the country.

Both leverage and risk control are hard to achieve at the present stage.

The important aspect of the "supply side reform" in the future is to resolve excess capacity and dispose of "zombie enterprises". The "subtraction" is more colorful, inevitably involving people and money, that is, employment and debt problems. The difficulties and demands are relatively high, but the decision making level is very determined. The short-term economic growth supported by the remaining capacity is not only sustainable, but also suffers more pain than the removal of these capacity.

The way is to maintain social stability and operate at the same time. Long pain is better than short pain.

"Winding up" for these enterprises can not only release scarce resources such as land and credit, but also enable workers in these enterprises to take up new jobs after being included in social security and training, and see new hope.