It Is Getting Closer And Closer To The Fed'S Next Interest Rate Hike, And Textile Enterprises' Fatigue Has Not Changed

 

Due to the continuous drop in raw material prices, significant recovery of spinning profits, a slight rise in the start-up rate recently, and the speed of finished product delivery has also been accelerated. However, the textile enterprises are still cautious in replenishing the warehouse, and the stock preparation of raw materials has increased slightly, but it is still at the lowest level in recent years.

In terms of cotton mills, as of September 2, the start-up rate of pure cotton mills has risen to 43.5%, and the cotton inventory of cotton mills has risen slightly to 22.6 days. The days of cotton yarn inventory have declined for four consecutive weeks, and have now fallen to 42.2 days.

As for the weaving mills, as of September 2, the cotton grey fabric load slowly rose to 44.4%, but it was still the lowest level in recent five years. The cotton yarn inventory of the weaving mill is 9 days, showing an accelerated upward trend. The inventory of cotton grey fabric has been obviously removed recently, but it is still at the absolute high level of 42 days as a whole.

On the whole, China has gradually entered the peak season of goods preparation. Due to the improvement of immediate spinning profit, the raw material inventory has increased, and the recent indicators such as start-up rate and finished product inventory have also improved, but the overall benefit is limited,

The weakness of domestic demand has not changed. If the situation of downstream orders can improve, China is expected to usher in a wave of seasonal replenishment, which may boost domestic cotton prices in the short term.

However, in the current domestic epidemic situation and the global liquidity tightening background, the strength of demand staged improvement may be limited, and the space for cotton price rebound is not expected to be too large. In the short term, we mainly focus on the acquisition of new cotton.

Recently, the main cotton producing areas in the United States ushered in rainfall, the drought situation improved significantly, the market speculation on the weather and production reduction gradually cooled down, cotton fell continuously in ice period, and quickly fell back to the position before USDA report was published.

At present, it is getting closer and closer to the Fed's next interest rate increase, and the expectation of global cotton demand decline caused by macro weakness has increased. We should pay attention to the USDA supply and demand report to be released in September.

Domestic, commercial inventory is high, cotton is expected to increase slightly in the new year, as new cotton is about to be listed, supply pressure will gradually increase. Domestic downstream demand has slightly improved, spinning profits have been repaired, the start-up rate has been slowly rising recently, and the speed of finished products going to the warehouse has also been accelerated, but the overall good is limited, so we should pay attention to the replenishment in peak season.